Metatrend Tracking Begins for 2020
We’ve been diligent trend trackers for years now at Foodscape Group. In fact, every year for five years running now we do a Foodscape Metatrends™ analysis. Sometimes mistakenly referred to as “megatrends” by others, we are keying on the measurement of the trends of the trends – hence the META. In this process, we pull more than one hundred individual trends reports annually across health, wellness, food and culinary. We then crunch the data to quantify the trends of the trends.
Over the years, one thing we’ve noticed is the annual Whole Foods Market trends report gets released early on…well ahead of the many trend reports that appear around the very end of the calendar year. Often, other well known “food trends” providers use this Whole Foods Market Top 10 as a base for their trends report. Sometimes they just copy it verbatim and call it their own too (needless to say, we do not recommend this!). As usual, we’ll include the Whole Foods Market report in our annual meta-analysis (sign up here to get our 2019 metatrends mini report and to be notified about the 2020 metatrends release).
For now, let’s break down what we’re seeing in this pivotal report.
Here are the Top 10 for 2020 as reported by Whole Foods Market:
Regenerative Agriculture
Regenerative agriculture is defined by Whole Foods Market as “farming and grazing practices that restore degraded soil, improve biodiversity and increase carbon capture to create long-lasting environmental practices, such as positively impacting climate change.”
One key distinction is that regenerative agriculture is generally defined by ecological outcomes whereas organic agriculture is generally not. On the flip, there’s more distinct regulatory guidance around organic agriculture compared to regenerative. Of course, it’s possible to combine the two as well.
The Net? This trend shows the importance and attention finally being given to how the food we eat fits into the larger conversation around global sustainability. Take a look at the Sustainable Development Goals from the World Health Organization for a macro view of this evolving topic.
Flour Power
Flour Power is all about how traditional flours are being replaced with alternative ones derived from vegetables, fruits or nuts. For example, there’s cauliflower flower, banana flour and tigernut flour to name a few.
From a nutritional lens, alternative flours are often higher in protein and/or fiber than traditional “white” flour, which is a good thing. These flours are also often gluten-free, which will please many consumers. Plus, these alternative flours are a means to attain grain-free status for those looking to reduce grains in their diet. I would argue the emphasis should be on reducing refined grains and increasing consumption of whole grains, but grain-free is a thing.
The Net? Triggered in part by the Paleo and Keto tribes, grain-free has also found it’s way into the more mainstream plant-based, flexitarian approach to eating. Just keep in mind that alternative flours don’t always behave like traditional ones when it comes to creating things like chips, crackers or baked goods. For that reason, many of the resulting CPG products may contain other ingredients that, in some cases, lack any substantive nutrition. Further, sometimes these lesser nutritious other ingredients end up being the lead ingredient! All said, depending on how the alternative flours are processed, handled and combined with other ingredients, the end products may or may not be more nutritious than those made with traditional flours.
Foods from West Africa
Based on our Foodscape Metatrends™ 2019 analysis, Taste the Globe was not only the second metatrend but also flavors from West Africa were a driving sub-trend. As Whole Foods smartly points out, there are 16 nations within West Africa, which means a whole host of ingredients and dishes at play that can’t and shouldn’t be distilled down to one or two.
The Net? Ingredients like moringa and tamarind or lesser-known grains like fonio and teff will continue to make mainstream appearances. Most likely though the non-West African consumer will need some guidance on how to choose and work with these lesser familiar ingredients. The more they can be incorporated into existing offerings (wrapped up in a meal kit, for example), the more headway they will likely make with consumers.
Out-of-the-Box, Into-the-Fridge Snacking
Definitely the most hyphenated trend I’ve seen to date! It certainly shows the mash-up nature of what’s going on in the wider foodscape, specifically the increasing desire among consumers for fresh or “fresh” foods in their diet. Note fresh is essentially meaning yanked from the earth and eaten on the spot where as “fresh” can mean some version of a not-overly-processed-but-closer-to-nature form factor. Yes, I can use hyphens too. Examples include refrigerated drinkable soups like Skinny Souping or snackable hard-boiled eggs like Peckish.
The Net? This is a massive trend that signifies the strong consumer desire for more natural, whole foods in the diet, regardless of the chosen dietary pattern. Keep in mind some questions worth pondering: What defines natural? Is a whole food always superior to a processed one? Regardless of the answers, this is about the massive shift towards foods that are essentially semi-homemade, fresh-ish and often requiring refrigeration throughout the supply chain.
Plant-Based, Beyond Soy
To say plant-based eating is on trend is perhaps the biggest understatement of the nutrition year. Plant Based is perennially a Whole Foods Market trend and a Foodscape Metatrend™ — its arguably a mega and meta trend. One key distinction this year is that we’re seeing a more concerted movement away from soy. As a nutritionist, I find this to be unfortunate given soy is the highest quality plant protein available. It is a shame soy has so much baggage here in the United States because it has a strong complement of amino acids.
The Net? I love seeing the un-tethering of what kinds and how many plant-based offerings can exist in the marketplace. What I hope consumers will consider is how much actual plant material is in a given product. In other words, choose products with some legitimate plant nutrition inside versus products that are simply avoiding animal-based ingredients. For industry, I hope there will be more attention paid to the quality of protein chosen. For the scientific nerds among us, I humbly refer you to this 79-page document from the FAO entitled Dietary Protein Quality Evaluation in Human Nutrition.
Everything Butters and Spreads
There is a renewed love of dietary fat (thanks Keto!), often combined with plant forward ingredients. Enter the ability to take most any nut or seed and turn it into a buttery-like spread. What I like about this trend is it allows consumers to increase their intake of plant-based fats, which is another good thing.
The Net? We’ll continue to see “butter” made from everything from watermelon seeds to macadamia nuts. One key element is the cost. These trendy products can be a bit pricey. It may be the ones that offer single serves like those from 88 Acres will take a lead position because they combine convenience and a lower cost per unit (though technically not lower cost per ounce).
Rethinking the Kids’ Menu
According to the Whole Foods Market report, 80% of millennials will have children by 2026, which arguably means a whole new generation of kids raised as “foodies” from the get-go. These kids will grow up knowing about fermented foods and drinking kombucha the way previous generations were all about chips and sodas.
The Net? There is a growing expectation among both children and their parents that foods and beverages for kids may be the same as the adults in many cases, with the exception of smaller portions. I don’t have kids so I always hesitate on this topic - but the thing I’ve seen clearly as I’ve traveled the globe (23 countries and counting) is children outside the U.S. often eat typical “adult” foods as the norm. One look at young Japanese kids eating nigiri or takoyaki and it’s hard to argue that kids universally only like overly sweet or overly salty foods.
Not-So-Simple Sugars
It doesn’t take a trend report to assert that there’s a pervasive desire among consumers globally to reduce sugar consumption. This is in parallel with the fact that, here in the U.S., manufacturers will soon be required to include added sugars on the new food label per FDA.
The Net? While the Whole Foods Market report touts the coming of syrupy reductions from fruit sources like monk fruit, pomegranates, coconut, and dates to name a few, the reality is added sugars are added sugars. In other words, from a nutrition vantage point, sugar is sugar is sugar. We need to look to reduce it across the board, regardless of source. This increasingly means the use of non-nutritive sweeteners like monk fruit or stevia. While non-nutritives work for some food/beverage applications, my vote is to use regular ‘ol caloric sweeteners like cane sugar or honey, just at much lower levels. We need to retrain palates to enjoy what industry types often refer to as “lightly” sweetened. The key point here is this needs to be more about a less sweet sweetness, not just angling for a caloric reduction.
Meat-Plant Blends
In the early days of plant-based eating, that name meant vegan for most. The reality is the moniker plant-based more typically means flexitarian these days, which is a mostly vegetarian diet with some occasional meat, dairy and eggs. Meat-Plant blends are a natural extension of this flexitarian mindset. Blends got their start with the Blended Burger Project™, which is the brainchild of the James Beard Foundation. They’ve now taken off in the marketplace with no end in sight.
The Net? With so many entrants, the key will be who can scale up and find ownable points of difference. From the “big food” side, keep an eye on Raised & Rooted® and from the “small food” side, be sure to check out Grateful Burger.
Zero-Proof Drinks
As consumers seek to healthify their diet, there’s been concurrent interest in reducing or even eliminating alcohol. Yes, there’s some data to suggest red wine can benefit health, but let’s face it, alcohol is not a cornerstone of a healthy diet. Sorry to bubble burst.
The Net? This trend shows that, while hard seltzer has taken off, there’s also great interest in other beverages like teas, sparking teas and sparkling waters, all of which can be mixed and infused. It may be faux alcohol, but it is full flavor. It’s as much about no alcohol as it is about what unique blends of herbs and botanicals can be swirled into an innovative and tasty drink with a bit of a health halo.
That’s a wrap on my take of the Whole Foods Market Trends. I shared a few products along the way. These are not affiliate links in case you’re wondering, rather products chosen to illustrate a point. If you have products you love that fit into any of these trends, drop me a note below. I’m always curious about what’s out there to sample in the worldwide foodscape.